Comments for Oliver Searles

Comment on Reserve Bank of Australia Keeps Interest Rates on Hold by Joel

Joel — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 05:13:14 +0000

Well the small rise in rates is not really important in dollar terms. More of a signal that rates are at or close to the bottom of the shortest rate cycle in history. Essentially the economy is rudderless with no major weapons available for any downside risks. If only we had been an economy of savers we would never have had to rely on offshore funding and place our futures in the hands of others.

Comment on Do Reserve Bank Interest Rate Cuts Matter? by Joel

Joel — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:24:49 +0000

The government actually has 0 say in these matters. You will find that Wayne Swan’s bank bashing is a populist vote grabbing exercise. Nothing more. This article is excellent and detailed. Worth a read. http://www.theage.com.au/business/lenders-strike-looms-without-rate-relief-20120209-1rni0.html#ixzz1lr4frN4t

Comment on Perth Property Market Update 1-1-12 by Joel

Joel — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 07:50:08 +0000

The problem is that the 2 data sets which show monthly results, RPData and Residex both showed prices rose October to November but fell November to December. Both showed declines of over 1 % for the month and although may be revised will definately be negative due to the high number. I am guessing this is why the MSM was very negative. Lets hope it is not the start of a new leg down.

Comment on #1 in January by Oliver Searles

Oliver Searles — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 05:29:21 +0000

Thanks

Comment on #1 in January by Matt

Matt — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 05:25:11 +0000

Wooooooooo! Congratulations

Comment on Perth Property Market Update 1-1-12 by Jay

Jay — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 11:25:35 +0000

Hi Joel,

If you read the complete RP data report, they note that the data for Perth has issues this December (i.e. it is very likely it will be significantly revised, but you never know if it will go up or down…). I will take their own advice and not provide much weight to the estimate for Perth.

It was not reported clearly today in the media that the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated Perth prices rose 0.5% in the December quarter.

APM estimated Perth was negitive in the December quarter.

REWIA reported an increase in December.

So thats 2 ups, 2 downs. This is a significant change from ~September where all the indicies were negitive.

You would expect when a market flattens, prior to increasing, that some indicies will be positive and some negitive until there is a very clear signal.

It should also be noted that the full impact of interest rate changes dont apply immediately (which is why RBA sets them for economic conditions 6 months ahead).

REIWA presidents have a history of poor predictions (on both the ups and downs).

Comment on Perth Property Market Update 1-1-12 by Joel

Joel — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 09:38:11 +0000

I thought that the cuts would have had more of an impact. Numbers flowing through are either flat or falling. The big one RPData had us worst in the nation again. Any thoughts i know December is a quiet month so maybe its a bump in the road? REIWA telling investors no to panick does not promote confidence.

Comment on Busy Start to The Year by Joel

Joel — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 09:44:41 +0000

Now is the time to get a loan and lock it in if you can….. i hear 3 year fixed rates will rise within 14 days from CBA.

Comment on Perth Property Market Update 14-12-11 by Oliver Searles

Oliver Searles — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 01:39:13 +0000

The middle and end of December is always slow. It usually picks up in January and February though.

Comment on Perth Property Market Update 14-12-11 by Joel

Joel — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 10:39:04 +0000

I was expecting a big bounce towards Xmas. It’s been very disappointing to say the least. This is getting tiring. Merry Xmas to all and a happy new year….. I guess we have to look into next year. Last years numbers are beyond what we can expect this time round. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/12/housing-finance-weak-but/